Second leg of the Europa League playoff: Utrecht advances at home? Zlini needs to break the "Dutch-style pass-by-control curse"

At 02:00 am on August 29, the second leg of the Europa League playoffs will start at the Gerredome Stadium, with the Eredivisie Udrecht playing-off against Bosnia and Herzegovina team Zlini at home. The 2-0 away victory in the first leg gave Udrecht the initiative to advance, and he only needed to remain unbeaten to lock in the Europa League main match; while Zlinni was in a desperate situation and had to win 3 goals away from home to reverse the situation - this match of strength was not only a collision between Dutch pass control and Eastern European defensive counterattack, but also a game between "promotion and stability" and "miracle fantasy".

State fault: Utrecht broke out in a double line, Zlini collapsed away from home

Utrecht's recent state is "full of firepower". He has 5 wins and 1 losses in all competitions in the last 6 games, scoring 16 goals and conceded only 5 goals, of which 14 goals have been scored in 5 European games, and his offensive efficiency is amazing. Last weekend, the Dutch Eredivisie defeated SBV elite 4-1 at home. The frontcourt partner of new aid Alai (introduced by Dortmund) and midfielder Victor Jensen were in full swing. The latter contributed 4 goals in his last five games and became the number one hero in the European competition. What's even more terrifying is their home dominance: they have won all their home games in their last 6 home games, averaging 3.2 goals per game. The cheers at Gerredome Stadium often cause the away team to collapse in half. Last season, the Dutch second-tier home game set an unbeaten record of 14 wins and 1 draw.

Zlini is in a "double-line downturn" dilemma, with only 1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses in the last 6 games, and his away performance in the European Games was particularly bad - he has 1 draw and 4 losses in his last 5 European Games, and has conceded as many as 2.2 goals per game. After losing 0-2 in the first leg, Bosnia and Herzegovina lost 0-2 to Zereznica last weekend, encountering an embarrassing record of not winning three games in various competitions and not scoring a single goal. The team was completely paralyzed on the offensive end, with only 2 shots in the last 3 games. The overly relied on long-pass counterattack tactics was less than 70% of the midfield pass success rate, and they lost the ball many times during the propulsion stage. They had no power to fight back against Udrecht's high-pressure pressing.

Tactical Game: Pass control suppresses VS defends against the dead, and injuries become the key variable

Udrecht's 4-3-3 system brings "Dutch-style pass control" to the extreme, with an average of 58% ball possession rate and 14 shots, which can cut the opponent's defense line through accurate short passes. Midfielder Victor Jensen is an offensive engine, contributing 5 goals in his last 5 European games. He and new player Rodriguez (introduced by Celta) have averaged 12 effective crosses per game, just against Zlini's weak defense on the wing. However, the defense line needs to be wary of hidden dangers: the main central defender Petal Mamic suspended the red card in the first leg, and the eight injured players included goalkeeper Baccarat and midfielder DeVit, which may affect the depth of the rotation.

Zlini can only use 5-4-1 "Iron Barrel Formation" to try to delay time with intensive defense. But the team's defensive system has long been full of holes: left-back Mamichi was suspended, and 19-year-old Susak was ordered to be in danger; midfielder Stefano and central defender Suenzici were injured, resulting in a 40% reduction in interception ability. In the first round, it was precisely because of a set piece defensive mistake. The only hope for a comeback is Birbia, the core of the forward line (6 goals in the European game this season), but he has not won the last three games, and it is difficult to get a decent chance to score against Utrecht's 81% high-altitude top-square success rate.

Historical grudges and promotion code: Utrecht holds 90% of the right to advance

This showdown hides grudges that span five years: In the 2020 Europa League qualifiers, Zlini eliminated Utrecht in overtime, and the 2-0 victory in the first leg has allowed Utrecht to complete "revenge". The data further confirms the home team's absolute advantage: Utrecht has 8 wins and 2 draws in his last 10 European games, and has never been reversed when leading in the first leg; Zlini has only 1 clean sheet in his last 10 European games, and has never scored more than 2 goals in his single game against the Dutch Eredivisie team. Judging from the probability of promotion, Utrecht has exceeded 90%. After all, Zlini needs to win 3 goals, and they only scored 2 goals in a single game this season.

The game trend may be "loose in front and tight in the back": If Udrecht can score in the first 30 minutes, it will completely crush the opponent's hope; if Zlinni takes the risk of pushing the attack, it will be broken by a counterattack due to the empty defense line. Predicting a 2-0 lead (Utrecht wins) or a 1-1 draw, which means Utrecht will advance 3-1 with a total score. For Zlini, this game is more like a "battle of honor", and Udrecht is expected to return to the European competition stage after 15 years, continuing the glory of Dutch pass control in the European competition.