Why did the dynasty disappear? Salary paradox + tactical changes, the NBA enters the "Warring States Period"

Recently, a popular saying in the NBA circle: "Want to be a dynasty team? First ask if you agree to the salary cap. " Since the Raptors won the championship in 2019, seven different championship teams have been born in the NBA for seven consecutive years, which is even more exaggerated than the "Ten Years of Troubled Times" in the 1970s. The three consecutive championship myth of Jordan's era is rare today than a comet hitting the Earth. What the hell is going on? We have to start from three dimensions: money, rules and basketball itself.

Salary cap soared: players became rich, and the team died suddenly. In 2016, the NBA signed a 9-year super broadcast contract of 24 billion yuan, which directly soared the salary cap from 70 million to 140 million yuan. Now any defender who averages 15 points per game dares to earn an annual salary of 30 million, let alone a star. For example, Alexander of the Thunder will earn 30 million next season, and will receive a super maximum salary in 2026, with an annual salary of over 40 million. This leads to a cruel reality: the champion team has to face the problem of the salary explosion of core players as soon as they win the championship.

After the Nuggets won the championship in 2023, Brown and Pope had to be let go due to salary pressure. It is obvious to everyone that the playoffs were in short supply. After the Warriors won the championship in 2022, they paid a luxury tax of 170 million yuan in order to stay in Poole, but they were eliminated in the first round the second year. Salary experts have calculated the calculation: Under the existing labor-management agreement, the annual lineup change rate of the champion team is as high as 15%-30%, which is equivalent to changing half a team every year. How can we talk about continuity?

Alliance rules: Specially shackle the champion

If the salary cap is a soft knife, then the league's luxury tax rules are hard shackles. Teams that exceed the second rich line (207 million this season) cannot trade in cash, cannot sign players, and cannot trade first-round picks for the next seventh year and beyond. At the beginning of this year, the Nuggets wanted to sign a buyout former player Brown, who was bought out, because they could not sign a buyout player with a middle-class salary or above.

What's even more ruthless is the "super luxury tax", which exceeds the second line of more than 50 million, and pays a tax of US$4.25 for every dollar exceeding 1 dollar. Warriors boss Lacob has calculated that if he maintains the Big Four lineup, he would have to pay 200 million yuan in taxes every year, which is higher than the total salary of some small teams. Now it’s not whether the team wants to stay in the championship team or not, but the rules don’t let you stay directly.

Small ball tactics: The game has become a coin toss

NBA's current average rounds have increased from 93.9 in 2013 to 98.8, and the proportion of three-point shots has increased from 25.9% to 42.1%. The Celtics averaged 45 three-pointers per game. They could win if they made 15 shots in a game, and they could lose if they made 8 shots. This "three-point decisions" model has caused the game to surge by chance.

In the 2024 playoffs, the Bucks were beaten eight in the first round because G5 made 7 of 33 three-pointers; the Nuggets lost to the Thunder in tiebreak, and it was also because they made 1 of 8 three-pointers in the last quarter. Data experts have calculated that the outcome of a game now depends on the three-pointer feel, 20% depends on the referee's whistle, and the remaining 50% depends on who has fewer injuries. No matter how strong the Dynasty team is, can it control the players and feel hot every game?

Player mentality: The ring is not as good as money?

Players in the past were willing to cut their salaries for the championship. For example, Duncan took the initiative to get 100 million less at his peak, and the GDP combination saved the Spurs a total of 230 million in salary space. But now it’s different. Players like LaVine and Bill who have not reached the division finals still get a 5-year contract of 200 million yuan. In front of the banknotes, the ring becomes a luxury.

In 2023, the Warriors want to renew Poole's contract, which directly costs 140 million yuan for four years. They would rather be the boss of the Wizards than stay in the team. Now the player turnover rate is higher than that of the stock market. In 2024, the free market started its first week, and 30 teams changed 27 transactions, and no one was willing to live in one team.

Future Outlook: Who can end the troubled times?

The most promising thing now is the Thunder, which has three core core points, Alexander, Homegren, and Jaylen Williams, with an average age of 23. But the problem is: in 2026, the maximum salary of the three people will be triggered at the same time, and the Thunder salary will exceed 190 million yuan, and the luxury tax will be directly over. Unless they learn from the Spurs and ask players to take the initiative to reduce their salaries, they will still not escape the fate of demolishing the team.

Another possibility is the emergence of "superstars gathering together", such as Antetokounmpo + Doncic + Jokic, but this means that at least two people will have to cut their salaries significantly, which is almost impossible in the current labor-management environment. The NBA may enter a long-term "dynasty-free era" with the champions being a new face every year until the rules or player mentality fundamentally change.

There are some excitement in troubled times, but we still look forward to the dynasty

Some people say that the current NBA lacks dominance and is not as good-looking as the Jordan era. But from another perspective, this troubled times are precisely the embodiment of basketball's charm - there is no eternal king, every team has a chance, and every season is full of suspense. Perhaps, this is what basketball should look like - it will always be full of unknowns and will always be worth looking forward to.

When we complain about "no dynasty", we are actually witnessing a new era: an era that belongs to civilian teams, miracles, and all those who love basketball. As for the dynasty? Maybe it is quietly nurturing in some corner, waiting for the next person who changes the rules to appear.