0.3% miracle! The first team in history is against fate. Nesmith replicas Miller s moment in 5 minutes and 6 three-pointers

Under the suffocation of nearly 20,000 fans in Madison Square Garden, the Pacers used an annals to cast the first game of the 2025 Eastern Conference Finals into the most brilliant chapter in the history of the NBA playoffs. From 17 points behind 4 minutes and 30 seconds in the last quarter (113-96) to winning 138-135 in overtime, this fierce battle lasted 3 hours and 11 minutes perfectly interpreted the ultimate charm of basketball - before the final whistle, there is always a turning point to rewrite your destiny.

When the Knicks expanded the gap to 17 points with Towns' dunk, ESPN's real-time winning rate forecast has shown that the Pacers have only a 0.3% chance of a comeback. This number has a special meaning in the history of the NBA playoffs: Since the detailed technical statistics were found in the 1996-97 season, the teams who fell 7 points or more in the last 50 seconds of the playoffs have a total record of only 4 wins and 1,702 losses. This season, the Pacers broke this spell three times - a 7-minute reversal against the Bucks in the first round, a 7-minute reversal against the Cavaliers in the second round, and a 9-minute pit in 51 seconds in this game. The core engine of this reversal is second-year forward Nesmith. The role player, who averaged only 8.9 points per game in the regular season, made 6 three-pointers in the last 5 minutes of the final quarter (three of which were strong shots against the defender), scored 20 points in a single quarter, with a plus-negative value of up to +22. His three-point shooting not only set a new career record, but also became the first player in NBA playoff history to hit 6 three-pointers in the last 5 minutes of the game.

Knicks coach Thibodeau insisted on the "seven-man rotation" strategy showed fatal flaws in overtime. Although core defender Brunson scored 43 points, he was trapped and had only rested for 3 minutes and 11 seconds after five fouls, resulting in a key catch mistake in overtime and a tie for three-pointers. In contrast, Pacers coach Carlisle decisively withdrew center Turner at the decisive moment and sent out a maneuverable forward combination of Toppin and Siakam to create open space for Nesmith's "three-point rain". The collision of tactical concepts of the two teams is particularly obvious on the data end: the Pacers' three-point shooting percentage of 42.3% (16 of 38 shots), using the Knicks' defensive strategy to shrink their defense, and 11 of 15 shots in the middle distance between the penalty area and the three-point line; although the Knicks scored 18 points more in the inside than their opponents, their three-point shooting percentage was only 33.3%, and they rely too much on star singles in the key rounds.

When Halliburton hit a two-point tie, this goal, called "Durant Moment Replica" was given new significance due to a completely different ending - in the classic Nets' Nets' match against the Bucks in 2019, Durant's tie ball in a similar position was invalid due to the ineffective stepping on the line, and the Pacers' new nuclear dragged the game into overtime in the same way.

What is more interesting is that Halliburton imitated Reggie Miller's "throat lock" celebration after scoring a goal is a cross-time and space tribute to Miller's miracle of 9.8 seconds in the 2000 Eastern Conference Final.

This victory continues the Pacers' "East Final Curse" against the Knicks: Since 2000, the two teams have met in the Eastern Conference Finals four times, and the Pacers have maintained a complete victory. Although Knicks core Brunson tied Ewing's record of 30+ games in the team's history (18 times), he became the first point guard to lose 40+5 in the playoffs in the past 25 years.

The Pacers' "Wolf Tactics" scored 78 points with the Knicks' double-star scored only 2 substitutes, revealing the winning and losing code of modern basketball. Data shows that when the playoffs enter overtime, the winning rate of teams with more than 8 players is as high as 68.3%. In the upcoming G2, how Thibodeau balances the consumption of the main players and the depth of the lineup will become the key to determining the direction of the series.

This historical reversal not only reshapes the Eastern Conference championship pattern, but also proves to the world that in an era dominated by data analysis, there is still heroism on the basketball court that transcends probability calculations. As the New York Times commented after the game: "When Nesmith scored the sixth three-pointer, he shot not a basketball, but a spear that declared war on fate. "