Wednesday 001: Shonan Ocean vs Hiroshima Sanar, Sanar, Sanar, may create a great away victory!

[Short before the game: The relegation team meets the championship echelon, and the strength difference is hidden secret]

In the XX round of the Japanese vocational league, Xiangnan Ocean (16th place in the league) will face Hiroshima Sanar (3rd place in the league). Judging from the standings, this is a typical conversation between the "downstream struggle team" and the "AFC Champions League qualification competitor". Xiangnan Ocean's winning rate this season is less than 25%, while Hiroshima Sanara's away winning rate is as high as 60%, but the charm of football is often the drama of weak defeating the strong. This article will disassemble the key winners and losers of this game from four dimensions: historical confrontation, tactical formation, ball control efficiency, and offense and defense transformation.

[Historical confrontation: Hiroshima's crushing advantage, Xiangnan's home game is difficult to turn the decline]

In the last 5 league matches, Hiroshima Three Arrows achieved an unbeaten record of 4 wins and 1 draw, averaging 2.2 goals per game, while Xiangnan Ocean only scored 3 goals. What is more noteworthy is that Hiroshima's ball possession rate remained at 58%-65% all year round when he played against Shonan away, forming a significant "technical suppression". Xiangnan's latest victory dates back to 2020, when he relied on defensive counterattacks to win a small 1-0 victory, but now Hiroshima's midfield control has been further improved, and Xiangnan's "retreatment tactic" may be difficult to replicate the miracle.

[Tactical board: Xiangnan 5-4-1 Iron Barrel Formation vs Hiroshima 4-3-3 High Pressure Conduction]

Xiangnan Ocean focuses on 5-4-1 defensive counterattack this season, with an average ball possession rate of only 42% (second to last in the league), and long passes account for as much as 31%, intending to create set-piece opportunities through the wing fast horses. However, this tactic has fatal flaws: the midfield is seriously disconnected, resulting in large gaps in offense and defense transitions. This season, the proportion of opponents who penetrate through the middle lane reached 45%.

Hiroshima Miarak takes the 4-3-3 ball control system as the core, with an average ball control rate of 56.8% (third in the league) and a short pass success rate of 85%. The essence of its tactics lies in the introductory connection of full-backs + midfield triangle linkage, and tear the opponent's defense line through horizontal dispatch. Facing the low-post defense of Hunan, Hiroshima is likely to adopt a "neck-and-middle" secret defense strategy: use the width to open up the space, and then end with a straight pass or a long shot from the ribs.

[Pivot: The ball possession rate determines life and death, Xiangnan’s defense loopholes are amplified]

Ball possession and offensive efficiency:

Hiroshima three arrows averaged 14.3 shots per game (4th in the league), of which 68% of them accounted for; Xiangnan averaged only 9.1 shots per game (3rd to the bottom), and 40% came from long shots outside the penalty area.

Shonan's success rate in the opponent's half-time pass was only 52%, while Hiroshima had a 71%, reflecting that the former was difficult to organize effective offenses.

Defensive end comparison:

Shaonan has been shot 16.7 times per game (the most in the league), and the opponent's shots in the penalty area account for 62%, indicating that his defense line is easily penetrated.

Hiroshima conceded only 1.1 goals per game (4th in the league), while Xiangnan conceded 1.8 goals per game (15th place), with a significant gap in defensive stability.

Key win and loss indicators:

Shaonan conceded a goal rate in the last 15 minutes of the game, and the problem of physical collapse was prominent; Hiroshima scored 28% of goals in the same period, and was good at making efforts in the future.

[Precise deduction: Hiroshima controls the game away, and Xiangnan cannot escape the defeat]

Overall, the winning and losing balance in this game has been significantly tilted:

Hiroshima's three arrows' ball control advantage will completely suppress Xiangnan's midfield, and the latter is forced to defend for a long time will increase physical energy consumption;

Xiangnan's 5-defender system faces Hiroshima winger group + midfielder inserts, the local number of disadvantages may be magnified;

The psychological advantages of historical confrontations + the away stability of this season (Hiroshima's away game averages 1.8 points), further reducing the probability of an upset.

Final prediction: Hiroshima Mir beat Xiangnan Ocean 2-0, with a ball possession rate of 62%-65%, and a shot number may exceed 15 times. If Xiangnan wants to score points, unless the whole game is defended and seizes a few set-piece opportunities, the probability is less than 20%.