19-goal gap! Norway is in the World Cup, Italy is in a deadlock, will three consecutive absences come true?

When Haaland used a hat trick to help Norway sweep Israel 5-0, Italy in Estonia could only watch the qualification for the World Cup fade away even if it won 3-1. This early morning double-match World Cup preliminaries exposed the embarrassing situation of the four-time World Cup champions - after two consecutive absences, the Azzurri are still separated from the 2026 World Cup by an insurmountable gap.

Norway will qualify if they win, and the 19-goal gap becomes a death sentence.

With a perfect record of six consecutive victories, the Norwegian team has completely grasped the initiative to qualify in Group I. After beating Israel 5-0, they topped the list with 18 points, and their goal difference soared to a terrifying number of 26. What's even more fatal is that Norway's opponent in the next round is Estonia, ranked 129th in the world, and there is almost no suspense in winning this victory. As long as it defeats Estonia, Norway's points will reach 21 points. Even if Italy wins the remaining three games and catches up to 21 points, the 19 goal difference is enough to completely eliminate the Azzurri.

Haaland's dominant performance has become Norway's greatest confidence. This top striker has been blocked in many games in this campaign, and has continued to widen the gap with Italy with his unparalleled scoring efficiency. You know, the current goal difference of the Italian team is only 7. Even if Gennaro Gattuso's team swipes the ball wildly in the remaining games, it will be difficult to fill this gap. As former coach Sacchi said: "No one would have thought that Norway could threaten Italy in the past, but there are no secrets in modern football."

Four consecutive victories cannot hide the flaws, and there are hidden dangers that Gattuso cannot save.

Italy's 3-1 double victory over Estonia was a strong performance of four consecutive victories on the surface, but in fact there were many hidden dangers. Keane's goal in the first 4 minutes continued his hot streak of scoring in 4 consecutive World Cup qualifying games, becoming the fourth player in team history after Inzaghi to achieve this feat. However, his injury in the 15th minute cast a shadow over the team's front line. What was even more dazzling was goalkeeper Donnarumma's "butter hand" error. This low-level mistake not only cost the team a loss, but also exposed the instability of the Azzurri's defense.

Gattuso's offensive feast of 13 goals in the first three games of coaching gave Italian fans hope, but the loopholes on the defensive end are equally fatal - conceding 5 goals in three games. This kind of defensive quality is far from World Cup level. After the game, Gattuso also had to admit the reality: "We must prepare for the play-offs." These words actually acquiesced that the battle for first place in the group had ended early.

The play-offs have become the only way out, and the historical nightmare may repeat itself.

For Italy, the play-offs have long been a nightmare. Losing to Sweden in 2018 and losing to North Macedonia in 2022, the experience of two consecutive playoff defeats has made this "retreat path" full of thorns. To make matters worse, potential opponents in the play-offs may include old enemies such as Sweden and North Macedonia. The psychological disadvantage may be the last straw for the team.

Sacchi's statement in an interview was full of anxiety but helpless: "The third consecutive absence will be unforgivable, which is a heavy blow to the Italian football system." The famous coach pinned his hope on the change of players' attitudes, "Now no one refuses to play for the national team, everyone cherishes the blue jersey." However, the improvement in attitude is difficult to immediately translate into a breakthrough in performance. Gattuso's belief in "improving one game after another" pales in comparison to the cruel qualifying rules.

While France, Spain and other traditional powers have won easily, Italy is still struggling to qualify for the play-offs. The 2026 World Cup, which expanded to 48 teams, should have given the Azzurri more opportunities, but unexpectedly they were forced into a desperate situation in the group stage. The 19 goal difference gap is not a gap that can be bridged by faith; the shadow of two consecutive absences may really turn into a tragedy of three consecutive losses. The winter of Italian football is not over yet.