TA predicts the ranking of the Western Conference: The Thunder will stand out with 66 wins and 16 losses, the Chuan Yong and the Digg will rank third, fourth and fifth, and the Lakers will rank sixth

Translator's Note: The original article was published in TA, and the author is John Hollinger. The data in the article are as of the time of publication of the original article (October 14, local time), and the dates and times involved are all local time. The opinions expressed in this article have nothing to do with the translator or the platform.

Predict the trend of the NBA Western Conference in the 2025-26 season:

The irony of the Western Conference is: on the one hand, it has extremely high overall strength, and eight different teams are likely to reach the conference finals; on the other hand, this highly competitive division still seems to be a one-man show.

Despite the strong teams in the Western Conference, the Oklahoma City Thunder still stands out. Last season, they held a huge 16-game lead over the second-place Houston Rockets. This season I expect the Thunder to still be 12 games ahead of everyone else (the gap is closing!).

More importantly, the competition for No. 2 to No. 8 in the Western Conference will become fierce again, and the battle for playoff spots will likely not be decided until the last day of the regular season, just like last season. On paper, the gap between the Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets isn't that big... which explains why the second-place finisher in the Western Conference has failed to reach the conference finals in each of the past four seasons. Almost any playoff matchup that doesn't involve the Thunder is going to be a close contest.

However, my mission is to analyze it in as much detail as possible and predict how each team will perform in terms of wins and losses. Here are my predictions for how each team will perform in the coming months, and what each team can do to shape its future:

8. Houston Rockets (45-37)

The Houston Rockets had some of their best moments in the 2025 playoffs with a two-center frontcourt, but it also led to the biggest question of the offseason: Are they too reliant on this lineup? Obviously, trading for Kevin Durant is the headline news for the Rockets this offseason, but once games begin, attention will be paid to whether their taller rotation can work effectively.

The Rockets already have All-Star center Shen Jing and have introduced 37-year-old Durant, who is best suited to play power forward. But that didn't stop them from signing Stephen Adams (three years, $39 million) and Finney Smith (four years, $54 million). In addition, they also extended the contract of Jabari Smith Jr. (five years, $122 million), and signed Capela (three years, $21 million), and Jeff Green as insurance.

This team also features three tough but inconsistent shooting wings who often excel in small-ball lineups (Tari Eason, Tate, and Okogie). In addition, the team's best young player, Amen Thompson, served as the starting power forward for most of last season.

Specifically, how does such a lineup work? Especially when VanVleet, the only good guard, is out for the season with a torn ACL? Assuming Amen is going to be key, he'll be a full-time point guard no matter who he plays on defense. VanVleet's injury may provide an opportunity to experiment with other lineups. In the frontcourt, the Rockets may try to use Smith Jr. and Durant as the starting forwards, but neither is very comfortable with perimeter defense, and Smith Jr.'s shooting ability and mismatch isolation potential are also limited by his almost complete inability to dribble.

On paper, the Rockets have only two guards besides Amen, one of whom must shoulder a large amount of playing time in the second unit. Which leads to another key question: Is Shepard up to the task? As the third overall pick in the 2024 draft, Shepard performed well in the 2024 Summer League, but had little playing time last season and exposed some problems in the 2025 Las Vegas Summer League. On the other hand, his long-range shooting and stealing ability can solve some rotation and space problems. If Sheppard can't perform, Aaron Holiday can only provide backup-level performance.

Still, based on talent alone, this Rockets team looks very strong, especially if Durant can maintain his All-Star caliber. Amen doesn't shoot well but wows with his athleticism and defense every night; Shin Kyung and Ethan are already great and have room for improvement. If Shepard is up to the task, the Rockets will have a true ten-man depth lineup, and the third center Capela is better than many teams' backups.

From a larger perspective, the Rockets are still in a period of "difficult decision-making". Eason is facing a contract extension, and Thompson will also be eligible for a maximum salary extension next year. The Rockets have already traded Whittemore because they have no room for him, and put Jaylen Green in the Durant deal; if they plan to keep Durant (a free agent in 2026, but an extension seems likely), they may need to make another integration. Part of the reason for Smith Jr.'s contract extension is to allow him to match salary next summer.

Another difficult decision is whether to make another big-money trade like Durant's, because the Rockets' asset pool is still very rich. They have two unprotected first-round picks from Phoenix (2027 and 2029), one of the sweetest trade assets any contender has, plus a 2027 pick swap with the Nets. If the right players come along, they can move quickly, which is also the best upside scenario for next season. One argument against extending Eason's contract is keeping him as tradable to operate during the season, especially since the Rockets don't have any expiring contracts.

Even in the worst case scenario, the Rockets will be a strong team. Things could be a little messy due to roster grinding issues, especially early in the season and without VanVleet, but Amen and Shen-kyung teaming up with Durant make the Rockets still worth watching..

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (66 wins, 16 losses)

Thunder, do you want to challenge for 73 wins? Maybe you can actually do it, although it may come at a cost in June like the 2015-16 Warriors did. What's more likely is that the Thunder will take their foot off the gas when the time comes, easing into the playoffs with 60-plus wins and ensuring home-court advantage in every round.

Surprisingly, Oklahoma City brings back almost the first 13 players from last season's lineup. The new additions are Topic, a 2024 lottery pick who missed last season with a knee injury, and 2025 first-round pick Thomas Sorber, who tore his ACL in the offseason and is about to experience the same situation. Leaving the team is Dillon Jones, a puzzling late first-round pick in 2024 who was sent to the Wizards to make room for Sauber.

Frankly, the only interesting question facing Oklahoma City right now is: What could go wrong this year to derail it all? And: What will allow the Thunder to repeat this feat over the next few years and dominate the Western Conference for a decade?

To the first question, "injury" is obviously the most obvious answer, especially considering the vulnerability center Chet Holmgren has shown in the past. Yet even so, the Thunder still won 68 games and posted a historic scoring differential last year while dealing with the long-term absences of Holmgren and fellow big man Hatten; Holmgren played in just 32 games.

More broadly, the long-term absence of MVP Alexander may diminish the Thunder's dominance, but even in this case, the team seems likely to win more than half of its games without him. Last year, the Thunder still beat their opponents in the SGA-less stretch, albeit by a relatively small margin (+5.2 points per 100 possessions). Surprisingly, the Thunder had a double-digit advantage on every duo involving the MVP, including one minute in which he was paired with Alex Ducasse.

In a realistic healthy scenario, the biggest threat to Oklahoma City's dominance might be opponents "breaking" their defense after a year of watching. Teams like Denver and Indiana have seemingly grown accustomed to the Thunder's pressure tactics in their playoff series, and one has to wonder if other teams can chip away at the Thunder's dominance by creating more three-point opportunities and reducing live-ball turnovers.

These turnovers are the Thunder's lifeblood, masking one of their real shortcomings: They are not great in the half-court offense, relying mainly on isolations and pick-and-rolls between guards to create jump shot opportunities. Over the past two years, this style of play hasn't always translated into performance at the highest level, even if the Thunder win the title in 2025. The Thunder won the NBA Finals with a relatively low offensive efficiency of 111.6 and a shooting percentage of only 43.8%, even though the opponent they faced was not a strong defensive team; the Thunder's only superpower on the offensive end is its absolutely top-notch turnover control.

On the other hand, looking at the birth certificate in the lineup, you will find that the Thunder are more likely to continue to lead the league than to be caught up by the league. The Thunder's three core stars (Alexander, Jaylen Williams, and Holmgren) are only 27, 24, and 23 years old respectively. Caruso and Kenrich Williams are the only two players over 27 years old.

The Thunder also have plenty of leverage to use during the season, such as Dieng's expiring contract, millions of dollars in room below the No. 1 luxury line, and three 2026 first-round picks to trade, plus multiple draft picks in the next few years. (Technically, they also have a 2026 fourth-round pick, but it's Utah's and is top-eight protected and will expire after this year. Thunder fans, your chances of seeing that pick come to fruition are slimmer than seeing the Snowman.)

Overall, perhaps no defending champion team is better equipped than the Thunder to not only defend their title, but stay in contention for years to come. While weird things sometimes happen, it will take a very special series of events to stop the Thunder from dominating the season again.

Original text: JohnHollinger

Compiled by: selu