Durant airborne Houston? The possibility of the ultimate big bet is close to zero, and comprehensive in-depth analysis!

Suns' record John Gambadoro's latest news is like a deep water bomb detonating the league: If the Rockets want Durant, Jaylen Green + Jabbarry Smith Jr. are the basic bargaining chips! However, this news seems to have narrowed the distance between KD and Houston, but in fact it exposes an insurmountable gap behind the transaction. Based on the information sources of multiple parties in the past 48 hours, the possibility of Durant finally putting on the Rockets' jersey is rapidly approaching zero.

1. The truth about the Rockets' chips: Green + Jia Xiao is just a "ticket", and the Suns' appetite is far from meeting the core asking price exposed: Suns' team reporter Gambadoro made it clear that Jaylen Green and Jiabari Smith Jr.'s trading framework for any Rockets and Suns about Durant are core assets that must be included. This is not the "Dillon + Shepard + Draft" plan that ESPN had previously speculated (this plan is regarded as unreferenced by Gambadoro).

The Rockets' cost far exceeds expectations: Green (22 years old) averaged 21 points and 4.6 rebounds last season, which was the Rockets' most explosive scoring point on the outside; Smith Jr. (21 years old) showed the potential of a top 3D forward, with a large defense coverage area and a 35.4% three-point shooting percentage. Sending these two people means that the Rockets will dismantle the two links in the core framework of the "Seven Sons".

The Sun's deep goals are more than this: the core demand for Sun's reconstruction is "recycling draft picks + clearing wages". The Rockets hold the Suns in the first round of 2025, 2027 and 2029 (none of them are protected), and the Suns are eager to get back at least two (especially the 2027 and 2029 Lotto protection signs). If any transaction does not include these draft picks, the Suns are likely to refuse directly.

2. Durant's wish ≠ Rockets' first choice: Texas' feelings are hard to match the real dilemma

Personal tendencies exist but not determinants: Multiple parties have confirmed that Durant prefers to join Texas teams (Rockets or Spurs) because he studied at the University of Texas and is familiar with the local environment. But this preference is based on the two premises of "team competitiveness" and "long-term contract guarantee".

The Rockets' championship window is misaligned with the KD timeline: The Rockets' second-place regular season record in the Western Conference last season was confusing - the first round of the playoffs exposed a flaw that no one can solve. Even if Durant is obtained, the Rockets need to continue to pay multiple first-round picks + young players (such as Amen Thompson or Ethan may be requested), overdrawing the depth of the future. Durant will turn 37 in December, and his peak period is expected to be only 2-3 years away. The Rockets Youth Army (Shen Jing 21 years old and Amen 22 years old) matures three years later, and the timeline is seriously mismatched.

The contract renewal clause hidden risks: Durant requires the new owner to provide 2-year, 111 million yuan in advance renewal. If the condition declines or is injured after the transaction, the Rockets will face a catastrophic situation where a super premium contract locks in the space.

⚔️ 3. Contender analysis: The Spurs lead the way, the Heat, and the Rockets lack determination

The Spurs are the number one hottest: Although RG.org reporters said that the Spurs' transaction "lack of progress", many authoritative reporters (including Bill Simmons) revealed that "Durant's joining the Spurs may have been finalized, and they are waiting for official announcement." The Spurs' chip structure is more reasonable: Wassel (high-quality 3D), Kelden Johnson (i.e., combat forward) + the first round of the Hawks in 2025 + the first round of the 2027, which can not only meet the Suns' asking price, but also do not damage the Spurs' foundation. The combined offense and defense cap of Vinban Yama + Durant + Fox is higher.

The Heat wait for an opportunity: The Heat are unwilling to play Adebayo, Shero and rising center Wel, but they can provide Jovic (potential front line) + 3 first-round picks + expiring contracts (Dunro, Wiggins). Riley has always been good at superstar negotiations. If Durant expresses his willingness to go to Miami, the Heat may suddenly make efforts.

Rockets management is hesitant: The Rockets have never regarded Durant as their number one target. The inside is more eager for Antetokounmpo (adapted to the growth cycle of young cores), but Antetokounmpo recently announced that staying in the team completely blocked this path. Between "pursuing KD" and "preserving the future", the Rockets prefer the latter.

4. Suns' "stop loss logic": selling KD is just to save money, not to exchange for superstars

Ishbiya's financial nightmare is the core driving force of trading - Suns' salary + luxury tax expenditure this season exceeds 350 million, but they didn't even make the playoffs. The boss is facing huge cash flow pressure, and the primary goal of trading Durant is to reduce taxes + recover assets, rather than exchange for stars.

Time urgency overwhelms all - the Suns must complete the trade before the draft (June 25) in order to rebuild with the acquired draft pick operation. This is why Gambadoro asserted that "KD will leave next week."

Rockets' chips do not meet the core needs of the Suns - Green and Smith Jr. have 2-3 years left in the contract (Green's new contract starts at 30 million+), and the Suns will still bear high salaries after taking over. In contrast, Spurs' Vassel (4-year, 90 million long contract) is more suitable for the reconstruction rhythm, and the Heat's multiple first rounds + expiration contracts are also more in line with the stop loss target.

5. Why does the Rockets' probability of getting Durant approaching 0?

1. The chips are asymmetry: The Suns want Green + Xiao Jia + at least 2 unprotected first rounds, and the Rockets are unwilling to pay this price for the 37-year-old KD;

2. Strategic goal conflict: The Rockets are focused on winning the championship after three years, and KD only has two years of peak left. Forced behavior may both lose the present and the future;

3. The Spurs' overwhelming advantage: Durant prefers the Spurs + the team's chips are better + the literary class is more attractive, and the negotiations are close to the end;

4. The Suns' "sell" mentality: The Rockets want to take the opportunity to buy at the bottom, but the Suns insist on high prices, and the psychological price gap between the two sides is too large.

The outcome prediction: The Spurs are 70% more likely, the Heat is 20% more, and the Rockets are less than 10% less, all signs indicate that Durant's next stop will be San Antonio. The Spurs can meet the demands of three parties at the same time: the Suns get draft picks + young combat power; Durant gets a long contract + championship potential; the Spurs get super big boost to the growth of the whistle class. The Heat are the only ones who might disrupt the situation, but the chip limit is obvious. As for the Rockets? Unless you are willing to use the "suicide quotation" of "Green + Xiao Jia + 2027&2029 first round", this gamble will end before it even started.

When the 37-year-old Durant chose the direction for the last time in the afterglow of the sunset, the Rockets' "City of the Future" ultimately could not shine into his only remaining window for the championship.