Analysis | Tatum s injury accelerates the process of demolition of the Celtics. Trading core players will change the league pattern

(The original text was published on May 15, and the author is Jared Weiss, the Celtics' record of The Athletic website. The content of the article does not represent the translator's views)

The history of the NBA is based on the ruins of countless powerful men, and injuries entrench every floor on the basketball court like ghosts. James has never suffered a major laceration in his more than 20 years of career. This is not only a feat, but a paradox. Injury, surgery, recovery - this is almost every NBA player's coming-of-age ceremony, and now Tatum is finally going to face this trial.

The Celtic leader was once a famous Iron Man in the league, but the reality of competitive sports is colder and ruthless than steel. Tatum's evolutionary path from a flowing shooter to a crushing breakthrough player turned to a most ordinary force action at the end of the most exciting battle in his career. The Celtics lost to the Knicks' series G4 113-121. When there were 3 minutes and 8 seconds left in the game, Tatum just used his back foot to exert force, and then tore his right Achilles tendon.

The Celtics announced not long ago that Tatum had completed the Achilles tendon repair surgery and his return date was not yet determined. This type of injury usually requires 10-12 months to recover, but it must be different for a superstar who is only 27 years old. He may have been in his prime for ten years.

Tatum's injury caused an earthquake inside the Celtics, and the aftermath will sweep the entire NBA league. A superstar of this level suffered a devastating injury at the most critical stage of the season, which is a fatal blow to this giant team that is determined to win the championship. This kind of triple overlapping doom is rare.

This is another proof of the cruel nature of the NBA: victory has always been a luxury, especially at a time when the new version of the labor-capital agreement has increased the punishment of the super-rich line. Most of the time, the teams who ended up winning the cup were the healthiest teams, and this law of championship competition has never failed.

Celtic subsequent decisions may change the alliance's landscape. The entire league has been revolving around the Celtics in the past two seasons, and now other young teams at their peak may take over. After the Celtics were eliminated by the Knicks in the absence of Tatum, the NBA defending champion was eliminated for the seventh consecutive year, and this trend may be difficult to change in the short term.

Celtics' offseason plan is then in a completely unknown fog. The only thing that is certain is that when Tatum misses most (or even all) of the game next season, the Celtics will be a completely different team. After successfully winning the cup last year, Celtics president Stevens claimed on draft night that he would build the team into a winning general who "can continue to be brilliant even if he experiences a low point or occasionally misses the playoffs."

"But there must be no ups and downs," Stevens emphasized at the time. "This goal is difficult to achieve, after all, other teams are also very strong." Will this philosophy of team building become a model for the league? Under the new labor-management agreement, the Celtics are proving that the downward cycle of champion teams will come more quickly than before. The Celtics are expected to exceed the luxury tax line of $37 million next season. If they continue to cross the second rich line, they will face a step-by-step punitive luxury tax. The transaction restrictions and future draft pick punishment brought by the second rich line are particularly fatal after losing their leading star. When Tatum suffered a major injury like a ruptured Achilles tendon (although the peak of contemporary stars has reached its thirties), the new rules for freezing the team's first round picks for the next seventh year suddenly became terrifying.

And what extent are the trough periods of the Celtics willing to endure? What kind of chain reaction will it trigger when a powerful man like the Celtic suddenly clears his position and sells during the rising lineup? If the existing roster remains healthy, any of their players could change the competitive landscape of other playoff teams.

This team has always demonstrated full dominance, and can win by relying on three-point rain, as well as relying on the double-star hero ball to win. Even if Tatum remains healthy and loses to the Knicks, public opinion will only blame the pre-playoff injury wave. Perhaps the longer offseason and setbacks instinct of this year's playoffs can accumulate strength for April next year, but Tatum's injury has left all assumptions shattered.

The star still has a path to recover from the top five in the league, but the journey is long. As the league's top physical health manager, Tatum is indeed the best candidate to return to the peak after injury.

Tatum has precedents to follow. Durant had a full season quit after suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon in the 2019 Finals, while the Warriors chose to play badly. Durant's injury (and subsequent free-age departure) and Clay's tear of the ACL encountered in the next game, causing the most tragic dynasty collapse case in modern times.

But the Warriors made a comeback after hiding for a year and reorganized the lineup and defeated the Celtics led by Tatum in the 2022 Finals. The Celtics may be able to replicate this path, but the key difference is that the Warriors could still reorganize the lineup around the healthy Curry at that time.

Celtics are originally a model of league team building, and they have Gemini stars who can support the championship window for more than ten years. Although this dream has not been completely broken, it has cracks. Under the strict labor-management agreement system, what is this inspiration for the shelf life of the star combination? As the Celtics' hopes for the championship are gradually slim, we may find the answer.

The cloud of luxury tax has long been shrouded, especially during the transition period of team ownership changes. The logic of team building in the past was to quantify the value of the championship window before the reduction of staff caused the window to close. Now the question has become whether the Celtics can maintain this championship window under the new version of the labor-management agreement. The alliance is evaluating the true lethality of the second tyrant line, and this rule was originally born to kill the dynasty.

"It will be interesting to observe the impact of it (the second rich line) on the league," Stevens said on June draft night last year. "This will be a topic worth tracking in the next few years."

The team he is in charge will be the core case of league-wide research..

The Celtics' management has long been preparing for the future and signed long-term contract renewals with core rotation players (except Horford). Nowadays, teams are more willing to take over long-term contracts because it is more feasible to obtain instant combat power through transactions than the free agent market, and the Celtics have reserved multiple "escape hatches" on this road.

The Celtics are fully capable of completing the lineup restructuring: whether it is to get rid of the injury-ridden Zhu Holiday contract, or to trade second-in-command Jaylen Brown for young assets (such as Cooper Flag?). God closes a window and always opens a door. But in this era, the direction of change is changing too quickly. How much substantial significance is left in the so-called championship window period?

Original text: Jared Weiss

Compiled by: Li Taibai