Saturday 008 Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad Event Analysis

The team's recent status

Real Madrid

Although it has been locked in the league runner-up, Real Madrid's status has shown significant ups and downs in recent years: they have achieved 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 6 league games, but their home winning rate is only 50% (3 wins, 3 losses), exposing the hidden dangers brought by the defense line due to injury reorganization. Mbappe has become the only highlight, hitting 5 goals in his last 3 games and currently leading the La Liga scorer list with 29 goals, just one step away from the 30-goal milestone in a single season. In the midfield, Bellingham is absent due to suspension, and Kroos and Modric need to undertake more offensive and defensive conversion tasks.

Real Sociedad

team has missed the European Cup in advance, with only 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in the last 6 league games, and its offensive performance was sluggish (less than 1 goal per game per game), but defeated Girona 3-2 in the last round and ended the 6-round decline. Oyasaval made a pass and shot to show his core value. The defensive end was forced to use the three-center-back system due to the injury of the main central defender Agold, and the defense on the wing may become a loophole.

Recent match performance

Real Madrid has imbalanced offense and defense

Real Madrid has achieved 4 wins and 1 losses in the last five league rounds, including a 2-0 away game, but has lost the defense line many times when facing a weak team at home (disappearing 11 goals in their last 6 home games). The offensive end relies on Mbappe's personal ability (153 shots this season, with a positive rate of 52.3%), but the success rate of crosses from the wing is only 28%, which requires improvement in finishing efficiency.

Huangshe's defensive counterattack has variables

Huangshe averaged more than 2 goals per game against strong teams away this season, but the offensive efficiency of set pieces was outstanding (30% of the goals came from set pieces). In the last round against Girona, the team scored 3 goals through a wing breakthrough and set-piece, showing tactical diversity. However, the main striker Oscarson was injured, which may weaken the counterattack speed.

Tactical game and key highlights

Middle-field control competition

Real Madrid has reduced its interception ability by 40% due to the suspension of Joan Aménie, and it depends on Bellingham's offensive and defensive conversions (2.8 steals per game). The combination of the double midfielder Zubimendi (2.8 steals per game) and Merino (3.1 interceptions per game) may dominate the game rhythm. If Real Madrid's midfielder and the forward line can be cut off, it will greatly limit Mbappe's performance.

Off and defense game on the wing

Real Madrid's Vazquez's defensive loophole on the right may be targeted by Kubo Jianying from the left (average of 3.2 times per game). On the contrary, Real Madrid's insertion attack on the left side of Fran Garcia needs to break through the defense of Emperors wingback Gomez (70 steals), whose assisted defense ability will directly affect Real Madrid's cross quality on the wing.

Set matches

Emperor scored 7 goals through corner kicks this season (4th in the league), while Real Madrid's set-piece conceding rate reached 28%, which may become a winner. The success rate of header Hong Martin's header (65%) may create a threat in corner offense.

Psychological and fighting spirit factors

Real Madrid needs to adjust their status for the Club World Cup, and at the same time help Mbappe attack the European Golden Boot, with a clear fighting spirit. Although the Imperial Society has no desires or demands, the "Defense of Dignity" declaration before coach Alguacir left office may inspire players' fighting spirit and continue the tradition of "giant killer" in history.

Mainstream forecast results

Institutions tend to win against Real Madrid

Mainstream institutions initially offered Real Madrid to give in 1.25 goals high water, and subsequently adjusted to 1 goal of water, reflecting concerns about Real Madrid's injury wave. The data model predicts that Real Madrid's winning rate is about 65%, the draw probability is 38%, and the big and small ball tendency is below 2.5 balls. Historical confrontation data shows that Real Madrid has 8 wins and 2 draws against Real Madrid in the last 10 times, 7 consecutive home games and a net victory of 1.8 goals per game.

score deduction

combined with injury and tactical factors, Real Madrid is expected to win 2-1 or 1-0. If the Imperial Society stabilizes its defense and seizes the opportunity to counterattack, it may tie the opponent 1-1. Whether Mbappe can break the deadlock (51% of his offense starts on the left rib) will be key.

Summary

Real Madrid have the upper hand in home advantage and core player status, but the instability in defense and the decline in midfield control caused by the injury may limit its performance. Although the overall strength of the Emperor Society is slightly inferior, its defensive counterattack tactics and set-piece threats still have the potential to be upset. Real Madrid is expected to win by a small score, but the game process may be full of suspense due to tactical game and psychological factors.