Friday May 23rd Tournament Preview: Tersda vs Dembos, Naples vs Cagliari

003 Dutch second: Tersda vs Dembos

🔥 Game background and fighting intention analysis

This game is the second round of the second round of the upgraded playoffs in the Dutch second. The two sides tied a 0-0 draw in the first round. Terstal (7th in the Dutch second, 61 points) and Denboss (9th in the Dutch second, 55 points) will decide on the key seats to advance to the next round in this game. Terstar has been in a hot state recently, with 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the last 10 games, with full firepower on the offensive end; while Denboss has a stable home defense, but his condition has fluctuated significantly recently and his away performance is weak.

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🔍 Key data and recent status

1. Tersda: Strong offensive + home advantage

Recent status: 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the last 10 games, scoring 21 goals, averaging 2.1 goals, and ranks first among the teams in the Dutch second-tier play-offs. Although he did not score in the first leg, his possession rate was as high as 58%, threatening Denbos goal many times.

Home performance: 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss at home in the last 10 games, averaging 2.8 goals per game, and 3 consecutive games of clean sheets of opponents, including a 3-0 victory over Eminar and a 2-0 victory over The Hague. The home court is full of momentum.

Core players: Forwards Van der Wert (18 goals) and El Kachati (5 goals in 5 games) are in good shape. Although midfielder Smetz is suspended, the substitute players have performed stably recently.

2. Dembos: Defensive resilience + away shortcomings

Defensive system: This season, the Dutch second only conceded 16 goals at home (the third-small in the league), and in the first leg, he relied on the tacit cooperation of goalkeeper Blackman (saved 4 penalty kicks in the season) and central defender Van der Linden + De Jongen to ensure a clean sheet.

away weak: only 3 wins in the last 10 away games, averaging 1.7 goals per game, losing 0-1 to Kampul in the first round of the playoffs, exposing the problem of weak offense (only 1 win in the last 7 games).

Injury impact: Main forward Legalis and defender Cindavins are injured, weakening their strength on both ends of offense and defense.

3. Historical confrontations and psychological games

have been in the last 6 encounters, and Terstar has remained unbeaten in 3 wins and 3 draws. He defeated Denbos 1-0 away in the first leg of this season, with obvious psychological advantages.

The 0-0 draw in the first leg makes the second leg more suspense. Denboss needs to score a away goal or win, but historical data shows that his away game against Tersda is less than 30%.

📊 Tactical game and victory and defeat hand

Telstal strategy: focus on 4-2-3-1 formation, using wing breakthroughs and midfield control to suppress opponents, focusing on the gap behind Denbosi's full-back. Settings tactics (25% scoring rate of corner kicks in the last 3 games) may become the key to breaking the game.

Denboss responded: 5-3-2 Iron Barrel Line contracted its defense line, relying on midfielder Dumzios' long shots and set-piece sneak attacks (12 goals this season), but the problem of inefficiency in offensive organization needs to be solved.

Key showdown: Terstar forward El Kachati vs. Denboth central defender Van der Linden, the former's ability to grab points (success rate of 75%) may become a breakthrough.

🎯 Prediction recommendation

Telsta's chance of winning (55%): home advantage + offensive firepower, if you score in the first half, you can lock in the victory, and the recommended score is 2-1 or 1-0.

draw may (35%): Dembos defensive toughness + Tersda cannot defeat for a long time, and may enter overtime, with a score of 0-0 or 1-1.

Unpopularity risk (10%): If Denbos seizes the opportunity of set pieces or succeeds in a counterattack, he may win a small victory, but the probability is low.

Reference:

Asian Handicap: Tersta -0.5 goals (medium and high risk, odds of 1.85).

Total goals: less than 2.5 goals (high defense intensity, odds of 1.55).

⚠️ Tips

Telstad's hidden dangers in defense: Main defender Barisic is injured and has insufficient substitute players experience, so he may be targeted by Dembos's set-piece.

Denbosi's away mentality: If you keep for a long time, you will lose. You must avoid conceding too early and causing morale collapse.

006 Serie A: Napoli vs. Cagliari

🔥 Game background and fighting intention analysis

This game is the final game of the 38th round of Serie A. Napoli (23 wins, 10 draws, 4 losses, 79 points) faces Cagliari at home (9 wins, 9 draws, 19 losses, 36 points). Naples is currently 1 point ahead of second place Inter Milan, and you only need to win to secure the league championship; and Cagliari has relegated in advance, and the intention to fight in this game is doubtful. For Naples, this is a key battle to win the Serie A championship again since 2023, and the whole team is determined to win.

🔍 Key data and recent state

1. Naples: Strong home court + stable defense

Home dominance: 13 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in 18 home games this season, averaging 1.67 goals, conceded only 0.72 goals, and 5 consecutive games to the defensive end. He has remained unbeaten with 6 wins and 4 draws in the last 10 rounds of the league.

Offensive efficiency: Forwards Laspadori (10 goals) and Lukaku (8 goals) are in a stable state, but their attacks have been slightly weak recently, and the last two rounds of the league ended with a draw.

Hidden Injury: Main midfielder Loboteca (groin injury) and defender Juan Jessus may be absent, but the overall lineup is deep enough to deal with it.

2. Cagliari: Successful relegation + weak away games

No desires and no desires: Relegation has been advanced, 2 wins and 4 losses in the last 6 league rounds, a dismal away record (3 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in 18 away games), and averaging 1.8 goals.

Defensive loopholes: Conceded 8 goals in the last 5 league games, outstanding fouls and discipline issues (1.6 yellow cards per game), main midfielder Nayinggolan was suspended, defender Farrago was injured, and the defense line was even worse.

Counterattacks: Forwards Picoli (6 goals) and Pavoletti (5 goals) have certain threats, but their offensive efficiency has been inefficient recently, and it is difficult to achieve when facing strong teams away..

3. Historical confrontations crushed

in the last 8 matches, Napoli won 5 and tied 3 and remained unbeaten. He swept Cagliari 4-0 away in the first leg of the season, with a significant psychological advantage.

📊 Tactical game and winner

Naples strategy: Focusing on a 3-5-2 formation, relying on midfield control (Loboteka, McTominay) and cross from the wing (Spinazola) to create threats, and set pieces tactics (corner kick score rate 25%) may become a breakthrough.

Cagliari responds: shrink the defense line + quick counterattack, but lacks the midfield core Nayinggolan, and the counterattack efficiency is questionable and depends on Picoli's personal ability.

Key showdown: Napoli centreback Rahmani vs. Cagliari forward Picoli, the former has a 75% success rate in high-altitude top-square-top, and the latter needs to find opportunities in intensive defense.

🎯 Forecast suggestions

Naples' chance of winning: fighting spirit + home advantage + historical crush, with a winning rate of about 70%. If you break the game in the first half, you may win by a big score.

Unpopularity: If Cagliari defends against the enemy, he may tie the game (the probability is 20%), but the probability is relatively low.

Recommended score: Napoli 2-0 (defense win) or 3-1 (attack and defense balance), with a total goal less than 3.5 goals (odds 1.67).

Reference:

Asian Handicap: Napoli gets 1.5 goals (odds 1.85).

Corner kicks: The total number of corner kicks is 8.5 (both teams are good at making corner kicks).

⚠️ Tips

Naples pressure: The pressure to compete for the championship may cause fluctuations in the players' mentality, and you need to be wary of mistakes after a long time of failure.

Calli counterattack: If the Naples defense is relaxed, Picoli or Pavoletti may succeed in a sneak attack.