Can Ronaldo and Messi still win the Golden Ball? Who has a better chance?

According to the 2025 Golden Balls shortlist and the current situation of the two, Ronaldo's chances are slightly greater than Messi, but both of them are facing huge challenges. For example, the specific advantages are as follows

1. Ronaldo (40 years old, Riyadh won)

Advantages:

2024 season 48 goals (43 goals and 5 assists), winning the Saudi United Golden Boot + UEFA Champion, scoring in the final, and his physical condition is still at the top level.

The new generation of Portugal has risen (B Session, Leo, etc.), and the 2026 World Cup has the potential to win the championship. If the team leads the championship, it will become the biggest bargaining chip in the Golden Ball.

Disadvantages: The weight of the Saudi league is low, the exposure is insufficient under the UEFA system, the value of the data is questioned, and the list of shortlisted candidates for three consecutive years has been out.

2. Messi (38 years old, Miami International)

Advantages: He led the team to win the regular season championship in the 2024, and his historical influence still exists.

Disadvantages:

In August 2025, he suffered a loss of fighting with his right leg injury. Injuries and illnesses have occurred frequently in recent years, and attendance rates have declined.

The US Vocational League is even weaker in competitiveness. Argentina has realized its dream in the 2022 World Cup. The probability of participating at the age of 41 in 2026 is extremely low, and there is little room for honor increase.

3. Jointly challenge

League discrimination**: The Golden Globes are only limited to European League players candidates in recent years (30 players are all from Europe in 2025), and no matter how strong the non-European data is, it is difficult to break the barriers.

**Age risk: Ronaldo needs to fight the physiological limit of 40 years old, and Messi's injury accelerates to decline.

Conclusion: Ronaldo's probability > Messi, but there is only one year left in the window period

Ronaldo's chance: If he wins the title of the 2026 World Cup + transfers to European giants (such as Bayern/Manchester United), the probability is about 15%.

Messi's chance: He needs to win the 2025 Copa America + 2026 World Cup and be healthy throughout the process, with a probability of less than 5%.

Key variables: If the Golden Globes reform the "global league access" rules, Ronaldo will be more likely to make a comeback, and Messi will be unable to turn the tables due to injury.