Why is it so difficult to defend the title? League egalitarianism? A desperate way to build a team?

Translator's note: This article was originally published from CBS, and the author is Sam Quinn. The data in the article are as of the original article as of May 20th local time. The views in the article have nothing to do with the translator and the platform.

If you look down on NBA history from a height of ten thousand feet, you will find that over time, the league's dynasty attributes are gradually weakening. The early history of the league was almost entirely dominated by two teams: the Minneapolis Lakers won five championships in six years, and then the Boston Celtics topped 11 times in 13 years, including eight consecutive championships. These two achievements are still unmatched. Fast forward to the 1980s, and while no single super strong team completely dominated the entire decade, the Lakers and Celtics once again became the protagonists of the era—at least one team from each NBA Finals of that decade came from these two traditional giants. Overall, only five teams reached the Finals in the 1980s: Lakers, Celtics, 76ers, Rockets and Pistons. In the 90s, it was almost dominated by one team, the Chicago Bulls, but they faced different opponents at least every year. In the entire 1990s, a total of 13 teams made it to the finals stage, and the Bulls won 6 championship trophys through two "three consecutive championships". The Lakers followed closely behind and completed their own three-game championship, but there has never been a three-game championship dynasty since then. In fact, in the 23 years since the Lakers finished their three consecutive championships, only three NBA teams have completed defending titles: the Lakers (on the list again), the Miami Heat and the Golden State Warriors, each completing two consecutive championships. This means there are only three defending champions in 23 years. In comparison, in the 23 years before the Lakers won three consecutive championships, five different defending champions emerged in the league.

This trend is not only reflected at the team level, but also clearly visible to individual players. Think about the most successful players in every era in the NBA: Bill Russell won 11 championships, you instinctively know that future generations can never reach this number; Michael Jordan and Jabbar each won 6 times; Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan each won 5 times; LeBron James and Stephen Curry won 4 times. The question now is: Are the best players and teams weakening over time, or is it becoming increasingly difficult to win the championship? With each generation, the upper limit for winning championships seems to be lowering, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to win multiple championships in a row - this is the history of the NBA.

But recently, the pace of the alliance towards "equality" has changed from "jogging" to "sprinting". On Sunday, the Oklahoma City Thunder eliminated the Denver Nuggets — the 2023 championship — in the 2025 playoffs. The 2019 champion Toronto Raptors failed to even make the playoffs; the 2020 champion Lakers and the 2021 champion Milwaukee Bucks were eliminated in the first round; the 2022 champion Warriors and the 2024 champion Celtics fell in the second round like the Nuggets. This means that the 2025 championship will be the seventh different championship team in the past seven years - NBA history has never seen any uncommon championships for seven consecutive years. What is more noteworthy is that none of the top 6 champion teams can break through the second round in their respective defending seasons. What caused the dynasty to disappear?

This question is complicated and there is no simple answer. The new 2023 labor agreement is obviously a long-term factor, but it has only been implemented for two seasons and we cannot blame it for the seven-year trend.

Another common explanation can match at least on the timeline: the change of league presidents in 2014. In the era of David Stern, there was a joke among fans that the former president's ideal finals was "the Lakers vs. the Lakers." But Adam Xiao Hua's philosophy is completely different. He said in 2022: "In my opinion, anyone operating a league does not want to see absolute equality on the court, but equality of opportunities. You need a system where the best players and the best-run team can stand out."

Xiao Hua era is indeed one of the prominent characteristics of "working to create a level playing field." He led two labor-management agreement negotiations, both taking steps in this direction; he established a play-off system to stimulate the competitive enthusiasm of teams ranked in the middle; he also adjusted the probability of lottery draws to curb bad behavior. The healthy NBA in Xiao Hua's eyes may include having multiple different championship teams. But in fact, the factors that really make these different champions are largely beyond the control of a president.

To figure out what exactly happened, we have to look at what these champion teams have in common. The most intuitive answer is their team building method.

Among the six championship teams in the past seven years, three of them immediately won the championship after trading multiple first-round picks for veterans: the Lakers exchanged for Anthony Davis, the Bucks exchanged for Ju Holiday, and the Celtics also exchanged for Ju Holiday. The fourth team, the Nuggets, exchanged for Aaron Gordon with a first-round draft pick and RJ Hampton, who just selected the first-round pick. They didn't immediately win the title with the deal, but successfully topped the top in their first season with a healthy roster surrounding Gordon. The fifth team, the Raptors, also got star Kawhi Leonard through the trade - they didn't have to pay multiple draft picks for it, because Leonard was an expiring free agent at the time and they only paid him a year's salary before losing the star.

These teams have another common feature: relying on veterans. In addition, the frequent injuries occur in the modern NBA playoffs, which makes it more difficult than ever to win multiple championships with the same core lineup. Furthermore, as we have explored, this is the natural trend of the movement over the past 80 years—the arc of history is moving away from the dynasty.

But just because the historical arc is slowly moving away from the dynasty does not mean that the dynasty does not exist at all. Now everyone has a question in their hearts: Have the dynasty really disappeared? Will "egalism" become the new normal?

Similarly, there is no simple answer to this question. There is compelling evidence that the answer may be "yes". We've mentioned the new labour agreement for 2023, but until now, the team has really begun to feel its impact – it's harder than ever to keep a team stable for years. The injury problem will not disappear. As Ababas noted, NBA players are now running about 9% more than they were a decade ago. Modern basketball has put players' bodies in more "actual mileage", which can lead to more injuries, and there is no obvious solution at this time. Champions who have experienced four rounds of playoffs are theoretically more susceptible to these injuries than other teams - injuries will always be potential "dynasty killers."

However, if we view recent "equality" more as a team building phenomenon than a league-wide plan, we must look at the direction of how the team building is going before assuming that the current situation is permanent. While the era of “stop betting” is far from over, it is now coexisting with what I call the era of “full reconstruction.”

What does this mean? When one team "takes all the bets", the other team trades goes into "full reconstruction" as a result - in a few years, this team will obviously perform poorly or else it will not give up on its own star. But ultimately, the team will rise again in a more sustainable way.

Take the Thunder as an example: the Clippers "took all" to get Paul George, which gave the Thunder Alexander and a large number of draft picks. They used some of these draft picks to pick key players (most famously Jaylen Williams), while also hoarding and trading other draft picks, and also used their own draft picks to pick core players (most famously Chet Homegren).

When a team "takes all the bets", the goal is to win the championship immediately; and when a team "rebuilds comprehensively", the goal is to win the championship in the future. In this case, patience is a virtue. Think about the pitfalls we mentioned earlier: Obviously, the age problem does not exist for the Thunder at the moment - Alexander was 26 years old, and only Caruso was a veteran in the playoff rotation lineup; lineup depth is not a problem. The Thunder used 10-man rotation in the playoffs, most of whom were competent for starting on other teams; operational flexibility is the key to their future avoidance of problems - the Thunder has accumulated so many draft picks, and once the role players get older and their salary becomes higher, they can replace them with cheap young players. The Thunder are pioneers of the upcoming era of "full reconstruction", but there are other similar competitors on the rise: the Rockets and Spurs are in line with similar traits - they are young, talented, low-paying costs, and have accumulated a large number of draft picks for short-term or long-term lineup maintenance. Ideally, these teams could win the championship while rebuilding in full. However, if one day they need to "take a single bet", they also have the ability to do this without emptying the lineup, as they accumulate a large amount of spare assets.

Of course, these teams face similar obstacles to stakes: they have to compete with each other. The Thunder are currently in the lead, but as long as there are multiple such teams, it will not be easy to build a dynasty in competition with other teams. But think back to the history we discussed at the beginning of the article: The NBA has become less suitable for dynasty survival, even at a slow pace. We may need to accept that our old definition of “dynasty” is outdated, which does not mean that we cannot formulate a new definition.

When the Jordan-era Bulls won almost half the number of championships that the Russell-era Celtics had won, no one claimed that the dynasty was dead—the fact that the Celtics’ achievements could no longer be copied decades later. We are in such an era now. At this stage of NBA history, it may no longer be feasible for a star or a team to win five or six championships or even three consecutive championships over a longer period of time. However, we will almost certainly see one or more "full reconstruction" teams break the current record of unremarkable championships for seven consecutive years.

When the dust settles in this new NBA era, Alexander, Vinban Yama or their peers will likely be one who surpasses his peers and becomes an iconic winner among this generation of players. This could mean, they would win three or four championships, rather than five or six. This doesn't make them or their teams essentially inferior to those seniors who won more championships back then, it just reflects the ever-changing nature of the NBA.