Seven-dimensional outlook finals: Fighting whirlwind, three-point rain, historical record battle

2025 NBA Finals, the Thunder vs. the Pacers.

From some perspectives, the fourth-seed Pacers are completely different from the top-seeded Thunder: the Thunder was a favorite to win the championship at the beginning of this season and was invincible throughout the regular season. The Pacers did not improve by leaps and bounds until January this year, and their winning rate had been terrible. The Thunder have league MVP Alexander, another NBA All-Squad member and two All-Defensive members. The Pacers' only player to win season honors is Halliburton, who was selected for the All-Squad third team.

However, in other aspects, the two final teams have a lot in common - they are both young teams led by dynamic defenders. This is the first time since the NBA introduced the luxury tax system, neither team in the finals has paid the luxury tax. Both teams adopt an ornamental style and have never reached the top. The finals are about to kick off on Friday. Before the game begins, let's learn about this unexpected Thunder and Pacers through data, trends and highlights of the two sides' clash.

A rare All-Star point guard showdown

While these two players are unlikely to really spend too much time defending each other, the matchup between point guards will be a very noteworthy part of this series. Alexander and Halliburton are the first pair of point guards who met in the Finals and were selected for the All-Squad since Curry and Irving ten years ago. Unfortunately, that round of matchup was short: Irving suffered a fracture in the left patella in the first game of the series.

Alexander and Halliburton succeeded on the offensive end in a very different way. The MVP player (SGA) averaged 6.4 assists per game this season, but he led the league with 32.7 points per game, the sixth highest average in full-time point guard history. Meanwhile, Halliburton is the ultimate organizer, leading the league with 10.9 assists per game in the 2023-24 season, and ranked third with 9.2 assists per game this season. Halliburton is also a dangerous scorer who scored more than 30 points twice in the division final, but he can dominate the game even if he scored less than 20 points.

Both players performed well on the road to the finals. After a slow warm-up in the early stages of the playoffs, Alexander fully proved that his MVP award was well deserved, and his win contribution value (WARP) in the playoffs was ahead of all players. Halliburton ranked third in WARP before Game 6 of the division final, behind Alexander and Minnesota Timberwolves' Anthony Edwards.

Halliburton's passive history against the Thunder

Theory, the Thunder's defense is very suitable for limiting Halliburton, and Dort, Carson Wallace, Jaylen Williams and Acaruso can all show their own different defensive advantages when facing elite defenders.

This is exactly what happened to the two teams four times in the past two seasons. Halliburton averaged just 12 points in those four games, his lowest average against any opponent during this period.

Facing a group of fast outside defenders from the Thunder, Halliburton's performance was quite passive. His average of 10.2 shots per game is the second lowest of all opponents during this period, while his average of 0.5 free throws per game is the lowest. The Thunder also largely limited his organizational ability, as Halliburton averaged 8.5 assists per game against the Thunder, tied for fourth-lowest against all opponents in the past two seasons.

It is worth noting that according to GeniusIQ tracking data, Halliburton scored 8 points in 122 rounds of Dort's main defense. This is the minimum shot frequency Halliburton will play against any single defender (at least 50 matches) during this time period.

It can be said that Halliburton must rebound and respond, and be more aggressive, so that his team will have the chance to upset in the finals.

NO.2 offense vs. NO.1 defense

Pacers ranked second in playoff offensive efficiency, second only to the Cleveland Cavaliers, who lost to the Pacers after a big victory over the Miami Heat in the first round. Oklahoma City, on the other hand, has a terrible defensive efficiency of losing 3.4 points per 100 possessions than any other team.

This is the first time we have seen this type of showdown in the Finals since 2022 (the No. 1 Golden State Warriors offensive efficiency vs. the No. 2 Boston Celtics defensive efficiency), and the 14th time since the NBA began to have relevant statistics in 1997.

During this period, neither elite offense nor elite defense have obvious advantages. Teams with the top two in offensive efficiency have won seven of the 13-round series, and the team's performance on the non-strong end is often a good predictor. In the 12-round series, when one team is better than the Finals opponent at the other end of the court, nine times are the better-ranked teams winning. This is good news for the Thunder, who ranked third in offensive efficiency in the playoffs so far, and the Pacers ranked only ninth in defensive efficiency.

Don't expect the Pacers to make another three-pointer rain

The Pacers' offense is so sharp and the Thunder's defense is so suffocating, which is the attainment of both sides in controlling the three-point line.

Pacers have a 40% three-point shooting percentage leads the postseason team, and Halliburton is the only player in the Pacers' starting lineup to have an individual hit rate below this standard.

This unstoppable force will encounter an unshakable number outside the three-point line. The Thunder limited the opponent's three-point shooting percentage to only 34% in the regular season, leading the league, and in the playoffs this number dropped to 33%.

NBA analysts have long argued that opponents' three-point shooting percentage is mainly due to technology or luck. In any case, the Thunder's defense is obviously both. According to GeniusIQ tracking data, the Thunder ranks third in the regular season three-point shooting quality (based on factors such as defender distance and shooter identity), and second in the opponent's three-point shooting performance (actual hit rate minus expected hit rate).

But the Thunder's three-point defense has a weakness. According to CleaningtheGlass data, in the regular season, they let their opponents shoot the third most 3-pointers in the league, with 41% of their opponents shooting attempts coming from outside the three-point line. Even in the playoffs, that number is still as high as 40%, although most of their playoff games are against the Denver Nuggets, which has the lowest offensive three-point shooting rate this season.

The Thunder strategically choose to block the basket shot, but this focus defense comes with a trade-off: They have to accept that their opponents fire from the three-point line, even if the opponent is a quality shooter like Divincenzo and Michael Porter Jr. in the previous rounds. If the Pacers can maintain such a hot feel, this strategy could prove disastrous in the finals.

But at the same time, data suggests that Pacers players like Andrew Nembhard (29% of the regular season three-point shooting) and Pascal Siakam (39%) are unlikely to continue to shoot nearly 50% of the three-point shooting percentage. Whether they can delay the decline in their form may determine the direction of the series.

Ready for a faster final?

Usually, NBA teams will play more slowly and more organized as bets rise and games become more intense. Here is the average pace of the past eight finals:

2024: 93.0 rounds per team

2023: 91.7

2022: 95.4

2021: 97.3

2020: 94.6

2019: 96.9

2018: 92.7

2017: 100.7

But Oklahoma City and Indiana showed no signs of trying to slow down. The Thunder averaged 100.6 rounds per game this season, ranking second, second only to the Grizzlies who were swept out by the Thunder in the first round. Indiana ranked third, averaging 98.4 rounds per game.

In other words, the last really fast-paced final was in 2017, when the Warriors beat the Cavaliers five games in their first season with Kevin Durant.

But based on the style of play that both the Thunder and the Pacers like, they may be ready for another high-energy, fast-paced showdown.

Pacers' incredible journey

Although the Pacers reached the division final last year (but swept by Boston), bookmakers are not optimistic that they can go further this season. The Pacers' initial odds at ESPNBET have been 20-1 (1 20 losses), tied for sixth best in the East. After deducting the banker's advantage, this implies that the Pacers' chances of entering the finals are about 4%.

In terms of championship odds, according to ESPN research, in the past four decades, only two teams that entered the Finals - the Heat (75-1) in the 2019-20 season and the New Jersey Nets (60-1) in the 2001-02 season - won the championship before the start of the season with odds less favorable than the Pacers' 50-1.

Except for that Heat and Nets, four other teams that had odds of 30-1 or higher before the start of the season and entered the finals all ended up losing the series. So far, the Warriors (28-1) of the 2014-15 season are the most incredible champions on record in terms of pre-season odds. If the Pacers continue to win the series upset, they will break the record.

Two opportunities to create history

If the Pacers win the finals, they will be particularly prominent in the past championship ranks, because all the championships, except for the 95 Rockets and the 69 Celtics, enter the playoffs as the top three seeds in the division. The Houston Rockets were the sixth seed in the Western Conference and won two consecutive championships in the 1994-95 season. The Boston Celtics were the fourth seed in the East at the time and won their 11th championship in 13 years.

In other words, the Pacers could be the first championship team in league history to be neither the top three seed nor the defending champion. The Pacers also looked like an unusual champion candidate for their +2.2 net win. Since 1960, only the Rockets (+2.1) in the 1994-95 season and the Washington Bullets (+0.9) in the 1977-78 season have worse regular season net wins. The Pacers' resume looks very similar to the Dallas Mavericks in the 2023-24 season, who had the opportunity to achieve these achievements now in front of the Pacers. The Pacers became the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference with a record of 50-32 and a net win of +2.2. Last year, the Mavericks became the fifth seed in the Western Conference with a record of 50-32 and a net win of +2.2. Of course, that relatively inferior report card laid the groundwork for the Mavericks' defeat in five games in the finals.

On the other hand, if the Thunder wins the Finals, they will also be at the extreme of the all-time rankings. The Thunder achieved a record of 68 wins and 14 losses in the regular season. If they win 4 more games, they will reach a total of 84 games in the season. The Chicago Bulls (72 wins and 10 losses in the regular season, and then easily advance to the playoffs) in the 1995-96 season is the only championship team in NBA history with more total wins.

For this achievement, what helps the Thunder is that they need to accumulate 16 playoff wins to secure the championship, and teams with a more compact playoff system in the early days do not need to win so many games..

NBA history has only four championship teams with better regular season records than the Thunder: the Bulls (72 wins and 10 losses), the Bulls (69 wins and 13 losses), the Los Angeles Lakers (69 wins and 13 losses) in the 1971-72 season and the Philadelphia 76ers (68 wins and 13 losses) in the 1966-67 season.

(Text/Kong Yang)