Discussion | Crazy Lotto Lottery Night Opens the door to potential big deals this season

(This article was published on May 13, and the author is John Hollinger, a reporter from The Athletic. The content of the article does not represent the translator's views.)

Chicago - The NBA draft draw also seems to have a sense of humor.

It was originally expected that Cooper Flag would join a team that won only 20 games, but the final result was beyond everyone's expectations. The Dallas Mavericks, San Antonio Spurs, Philadelphia 76ers and Charlotte Hornets took the top four picks, completely overturning all previous predictions for this year's draft. The probability of the Mavericks and the Spurs taking over the top two is only one in a thousand; the probability of the Mavericks, the Spurs and the 76ers occupying the top three is as low as one in ten thousand. The winning Mavericks didn't even send their GM Nico Harrison to the scene, because they had a 1.8% chance of winning the No. 1 pick. Instead, the team's deputy general manager Matt Ricardi and former Mavericks All-Star Rolando Blackman took a photo on stage.

Even those who participated in this draw were shocked by the result of changing the team's destiny: "It's too easy," said a team executive who was lucky enough to win a high pick.

Meanwhile, another incredible lottery miracle of lottery is staged again: the Eastern Conference still cannot win the top two picks, while the Southwest continues to rise; the Hawks won the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft, although the quality of rookies this year is not outstanding. However, in the highly anticipated 2025 draft, the Eastern Conference team once again missed the top two, which was exactly the same as in 2015, 2018, 2019 and 2020. This hasn't happened to the Western Conference team since 2014 except for this weaker session in 2024.

As for the Southwest Division, the five teams in the region have won six top two in the past seven lottery draws. Since 2019, the Southwest Division teams have selected Morant, Vinbanyama, Jaylen Green, Zion, and the top two rookies for the Mavericks and Spurs this year. In the eight-year lottery draw, all five teams have entered the top two at least once. In addition, the teams in the region have won six other top five picks, using these picks to select players such as Doncic, Jaren Jackson Jr., Amen Thompson Jr. Jabarry Smith Jr., Stephen Castle and Reed Shepard.

I must emphasize: All this will completely change the situation in the league. The possibility of a

top pick trading has increased dramatically. Originally we thought that teams in rebuilding would get the top three picks, and they were not expected to have much action; teams like the Wizards, Jazz or Hornets would pick a player through the draft and continue to rebuild.

However, the three teams that prefer to gain immediate combat power—the Mavericks, the Spurs and the Sixers—have the top three picks. Meanwhile, rumors about Antetokounmpo's future in the Bucks and the Celtics may need to reconsider their expensive squad are also circulating as their star forward Tatum appears to have suffered a devastating injury.

Especially the Mavericks, it looks like they may be making moves in the trading market. Flag is an epoch-making genius, but Dallas’s on-the-fight plan around Irving and Anthony Davis may make it difficult for them to give up on the idea of ​​introducing Antetokounmpo. Flag, on the other hand, can prepare the aging bucks for the next generation of reconstruction.

The Mavericks and Flag need to solve some salary cap issues, and they may have to wait until Flag signs a rookie contract to complete the deal. Once Flag signs, his salary will reach $13.8 million, making it possible for the Mavericks to trade Flag with some other moderately paid contracts such as PJ Washington, Garford, Jaden Hardy and Dwight Powell for Antetokounmpo.

Of course, whether Flag or Antetokounmpo joins the Mavericks, positional adaptability with Davis is a problem, especially if Davis insists on playing power forward, which leads to two other possibilities.

One option is to trade Davis, re-planning the future of the Mavericks around Flag and Leifly. Irving has been torn by the ACL, and the Mavericks have the first-round draft pick in 2026; should we now revoke the purpose of the previous trading Doncic decision and enter the next era of superstars? If they put Davis on the shelves, there will definitely be a lot of teams interested in the draft picks and players in their hands.

Another way, we can only whisper, is to ask the Celtic about Jaylen Brown's deal. Brown is more in line with Davis and Lefly in position, but he will have a total salary of $236 million in the next four seasons, while the Celtics' roster will become extremely expensive next season. If Tatum needs time to recover, is Boston willing to rebuild around the New England native and wait for a transition period? Also, will the Mavericks do this? Unless they can get a lot of reward from this deal. Of course, the bidding battle for Antetokounmpo, Brown or Davis is likely to get fierce quickly, as the other two teams with high picks, the Spurs and the Sixers, have the chance to be important trade participants.

The Spurs can choose to use the second pick to pick Rutgers guard Dylan Harper, but their backcourt already has the mid-season Fox and Rookie of the Year Stephen Castle. Will the Spurs consider packing the draft pick with Sohan, Harrison Barnes and Kelden Johnson contracts, and one or two other valuable assets to try to form a super frontcourt combination of Antetokounmpo and Vinban Yama?

Spurs already have a wealth of team assets, including Castle, Sohan, the 14th overall pick from the Hawks, the 2027 unprotected pick (from the Hawks) and four future pick swaps. Therefore, the management members of a competitive opponent suggested to me whether it is possible for the Spurs to trade for Antetokounmpo without giving the second pick? (Any Spurs trade plan will likely include Kelden Johnson and Barnes to match salary, although Devin Wassell is also a possibility.)

Also, the Sixers have a Title-Battleback VJ Edgecomb, or Rutgers forward Ace Bailey... But the Sixers already have young All-Star player Terrys Maxi, and last year's outstanding rookie Jared McCain, and the Sixers' team-building timeline is not suitable for players like Bailey.

So, will the Sixers use this draft pick, plus an unprotected 2028 first-round draft pick (from the Clippers) and the 76ers first-round draft pick in 2031 to offset the trade to Paul George's post-impact (with $162 million left on his contract) to exchange Antetokounmpo or Davis? Can you imagine who the other party to this deal is? The Mavericks who started the reconstruction will have two of the top three draft picks and rebuild around Flag and Edgecomb (from nearby Baylor University)?

More downstream of the lottery draw, there are some small suspense: The Pelicans' draft pick fell to seventh is an unknown in this draft, depending on the team's new executive Joe Dumas' decision against Zion.

The Nets have long been considered an ardent team to pursue Antetokounmpo, but their eighth pick, coupled with the rise of the Mavericks, Spurs and the Sixers, are obviously against them. Maybe it's time to consider alternatives? The Rockets' draft pick fell to tenth, and they got an unprotected draft pick from the Suns, which means that their draft pick is likely to be used for trades, as the Rockets are fighting for immediate combat and they don't need to add another young player.

Similarly, the Trail Blazers' draft pick fell to the eleventh pick and did not need another developing player; if it could help them get rid of the huge contracts of Jerami Grant or DeAndre Ayton, the Trail Blazers might use the draft pick to trade.

Finally, this lottery draw left us two small details about future draft picks: First, the Sixers retained the top six picks they owe to the Thunder to protect the draft picks - this is an impossible task for those at the draw, because the 76ers retained the draft pick after the Mavericks and the Spurs respectively, the probability of the 76ers retaining this draft pick has dropped to 12%. This means the Sixers will owe the Thunder a top four protection first-round draft pick in 2026.

Secondly, the Kings are in thirteenth place, so they will hand over the first-round pick from the Kevin Hurt trade to the Hawks – which may not have happened if the Kings lost in the final regular season game and won the Dallas lottery number. They no longer have that obligation in the coming years, and the Kings can now trade up to five future first-round picks in any blockbuster trade (four of them are their own and one from the Timberwolves).

In any case, the main event here is the effect of the results of the lottery draw on the league's offseason trading cycle. Of course, the Mavericks, Spurs and the Sixers may use their draft picks to select players. But what seems to be more likely than a week ago is that we will see some trades happening on the night of draft night.

Original text: John Hollinger

Compiled by: JayChan